1. Introduction

• Timing definitions

  • Investment horizons

  • Deciding on exposure durations 

  • Rotating between exposures (Trading frequency)

  • Calendar vs. Event timing

• Deflating timing stereotypes

  • Timing as Evil (How long it takes it takes to recover a loss )

  • Warren Buffet analogy with marriage 

  • Timing as God (Compounding to get rich quickly)

  • Rothschild analogy with a Scottish shower

  • Neither Evil nor God: Simply higher return/risk strategies

   

• The timing spectrum: from day-trading to buy-and-hold

  • Scalping in day-trading

  • Life time strategies in value investing 

  • Where to be in the timing spectrum: Simulation results

   

2. Main approaches to timing  

• Timing price patterns

  • Bull/bear cycles

  • Top/bottom reversals

  • ZigZag trends

• Calendar cycles

  • Reporting seasons

  • Interest rate meetings

  • Tax reporting

  • Holidays and other special dates (e.g. triple witching)

• Event cycles

  • Announcements

• Timing skills

  • Getting the trend right

  • Capturing a significant portion of both side of the cycle

  • Empirical evaluation of timing vs. stock-picking skills

  • Personality and trading profiles

• Spotting cycle reversals

  • Conditions for successful timing

3. Timing strategies

• Cash (safe-havens)
  • Dollar
  • Gold

   

  • Alternative investments (the sun is always shinning somewhere)
  • • Asset class rotations:

    • i. Fixed-income

    • ii. Commodities

    • iii. Private equity

    • iv. Alternative alternatives (uncorrelated stories)

    • Shorting strategies

    •  

    • Case study 2: Shorting based on quality ratings

      Mr. Unfortunate decides to go short

    • Market rotations (markets, currencies)

      • i. Historical patterns

      • ii. Case study 3: Market quality rotations

        • Switching DJI constituents for FTSE and CAC40

      4. Implementing timing strategies (case studies)

      a) Sector rotations

      i. Historical patterns

      ii. Case study 4

      • Multi-manager pension plans

      b) Defensive stocks

      c) Flight to quality

      i. Case study 5

      • Invesco US Equity Fund

      d) Diversification analysis

      i. Case study 6

      • Disappointed US investor wishes to invest abroad

      5. Evaluating timing strategies

      • Timing and stock-picking

      • Timing and leveraging

      • Risks and rewards of timing

       

    • 6. Portfolio Management during critical periods

      • Bear markets and crashes

        Rebounds

        Bulls and bubbles 

      • Conclusions and recommendations