1. Identification of bear markets

• What is a bear market?

• How to measure a bear market?

  • Zig zags vs. sequential lossses

  • Choice of relevant indexes

a) Historical records

• Linear vs. logarithmic views

• Bull& Bear Periods: Amplitudes

• Bull& Bear Periods: Durations

• Bear markets and economic recessions

b) Forecasting of bear markets

• Can call (forecast) bear markets?

c) Stages in the development of bear markets

• Bear markets shapes

• Stamped patterns: “first (last) to fall last (first) to rise?”

• Are we in a bear market?

d) To act or not to act?

• A sample of opinions “googled” recently

2. Do nothing strategies

a) Pros and Cons

i. Stock Rating Tools: The StockMarks^TM

b) Case study 1: Quality rating and diversification analysis for “do-nothing” strategies

• A DJI Portfolio

c) Hedging strategies

• Difficulties in perfect replication

3. Switching (get out) strategies

a) Cash (safe-havens)

b) Alternative investments (the sun is always shinning somewhere)

i. Asset class rotations

1. Fixed-income
2. Commodities
3. Private equity

c) Shorting strategies

• Case study 2: Shorting based on quality ratings

  Fund XYZ

d) Market rotatiosn (markets, currencies)

i. Historical patterns

ii. Case study 3: Market quality rotations

• Switching DJI constituents for FTSE and CAC40

4. Rebalancing strategies

a) Sector rotations

i. Historical patterns

ii. Case study 4

• Funds ABC

b) Defensive stocks

c) Flight to quality

i. Case study 5

• DJI Rebalancing

d) Diversification analysis

i. Case study 6

• Invesco US Equity Fund

5. After the bear market

a) Where is the bottom

• Recovery shapes

b) Conclusions and recommendations